Attribution Is a Story, Not a Spreadsheet
How to combine MTA, MMM, and incrementality tests without gaslighting your CFO.
No single attribution method is correct. Multi-touch models are precise and biased, media mix models are unbiased and vague, and incrementality tests are trustworthy and expensive. Mature measurement triangulates rather than choosing a favourite.
01Assign each method its job
Use multi-touch data for day-to-day optimisation within a channel, mix modelling for quarterly budget allocation across channels, and incrementality tests to settle disputes about specific channels.
Problems begin when a method is used outside its competence, for example, using last-click to decide whether brand advertising deserves budget.
02Run tests that can actually fail
Geo holdouts and scheduled pauses are cheap and decisive. Define the readout window and the decision rule before starting, or the result becomes negotiable after the fact.
03Report the uncertainty
Give finance a range and the reasoning, not a single decimal-precise figure. Ranges survive scrutiny; false precision destroys credibility the first time it is checked.
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